Can progressives stop a right wing sweep of North America?
Why Biden and Trudeau are at risk from their own parties
The future looks pretty dire for progressive voters in the United States and Canada. Right-leaning parties seem to be poised for big electoral success on both sides of the border.
By the time Remembrance Day comes around next year, Donald Trump’s Republicans and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives could be in power in Washington, D.C. and Ottawa.
Polls in the United States show Trump as the likely winner of the Presidential election in November. In Canada Poilievre’s Conservatives have enjoyed a wide margin over the governing Liberals for many months.
Democrats and Liberals reaching for the panic button
Democratic Party officials in the U.S. had their worst fears realized in the recent debate between Trump and Biden when the President and presumptive nominee performed very poorly [watch comedian Jon Stewart’s take].
Even if the President was convinced to step down in the face of near-certain defeat, it may be too late for the Democrats to replace him with a new nominee.
Is it riskier to go with a new candidate or stick with a president who appears headed for defeat?”
“All of this has left Democrats struggling with critical questions: Is it easier to defeat Mr. Trump with or without Mr. Biden at the top of the ticket? Is it riskier to go with a new candidate or stick with a president who appears headed for defeat?” write the New York Times’ Adam Nagourney and Jim Rutenberg.
Like Biden, Trudeau is coming under pressure to step aside
In Canada, Liberals are asking the same question about their leader, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The Liberals lost a key by-election to the Conservatives in the riding of Toronto-St Paul’s, a traditional Liberal stronghold since 1993. Pollsters extrapolated the swing to the Conservatives. “The model suggests that a 25-point swing, like we saw last night in the byelection, would likely mean around 55 Liberal seats in Ontario would switch to the Conservatives,” wrote pollster David Coletto the following morning.
Liberals are considering whether it's time for Justin Trudeau to step aside for a new leader.
“The mood of Liberals changed abruptly this week, like a switch being flicked,” according to The Globe and Mail’s Campbell Clark’s recent analysis. “There are, figuratively speaking, a lot of Liberals standing around wondering how the Prime Minister might be pressed to go.”
A Trump victory might help Trudeau
No matter what the Liberals do, they can’t seem to catch up to the Conservatives. But a Donald Trump in the White House (again) might boost the political winds in Trudeau’s sails, they hope.
“A second Trump presidency almost certainly creates a situation where the next election won’t be about Pierre Poilievre or Justin Trudeau — it will be about Donald Trump and Canada’s relationship with an America that is led by an angry, vengeful creature,” said Scott Reid, who worked in former Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin’s office.
The Liberal strategy will be to cast Pierre Poilievre in the likeness of Donald Trump – a polarizing figure for Canadians, and not in a good way. They recently mashed up Trump and Poilievre clips in a compare-contrast video, showing both politicians using the same attack lines.
NDP leader is safe for now
The NDP has been trying to capture more of the 8 in 10 Canadians who want a change in Prime Minister. Should Trump win in November, a “stop Poilievre and Trump” movement in Canada could drive NDP swing voters to the Liberals in 2025.
Jagmeet Singh’s leadership has not come into question, even though some in the party may have doubts about the NDP’s ongoing alliance with the Liberals. Singh won the support of 81 per cent of party delegates at the NDP convention last year (although this percentage has declined from previous votes).
The next six months will be crucial
There has been some speculation that Trudeau will step down over the summer, though most Canadians think he’ll remain for the next election.
Democrats don’t have the luxury of time to change their nominee before the election. But if polls remain unchanged for the Liberals, pressure will mount to find a stronger contender to put up against the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre, and to provide a new Liberal leader enough time to prepare for the election in October 2025.
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Thanks for everything you do for peace,
Steve
