Is Ukraine’s offensive into Russia part of a peace plan?
Is Ukraine’s offensive into Russia part of a peace plan?
The offensive may strengthen Zelensky’s hand in talks
It’s counter-intuitive, but Ukraine’s surprising incursion into Russia this month may mean that Ukraine is seeking a way to end the war, not expand it.
As PeaceQuest readers will know, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has become what is known as “a war of attrition,” where each side is unable to make significant territorial games and both resort to destructive, bloody, and costly battles to wear the opponent down over time. Think of World War One, another war of attrition.
Unable to break through Russian defences protecting vast swaths of occupied land in the Eastern regions, Ukraine opted to go around the dug-in Russian military to grab Russian territory elsewhere along the border between the two nations this month. It was successful, and Ukraine now controls about 1200 square kilometers in Kursk region [map].
Notably for the first time, Russia has been forced to bomb its own territory in a counter-offensive against the Ukrainians.
Some military observers were surprised by the offensive from a strategic standpoint, because it seems to be a distraction that doesn’t liberate any of Ukraine’s territory grabbed by Russia in 2022 – a long-held goal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
But President Zelensky and his generals have argued that the incursion into Russia helps prevent attacks into Ukraine, pulls Russian resources away from occupied regions, and boosts confidence in Western donor nations that Ukraine can fight successfully.
All true, but there may also be a much more important reason at play.
Captured Russian territory could be a bargaining chip in peace negotiations
After capturing territory and hundreds of Russian soldiers, President Zelinsky said, "We are achieving our goals. In the morning, there is another replenishment of the exchange fund for our state."
Some have surmised he was speaking about a prisoner exchange, but it might also indicate a territorial exchange, too.
This week Zelensky shared a secret plan to end the war with the Biden administration.
Is the Kursk offensive part of a larger strategy to end the war in peace negotiations with Russia?
It’s unclear whether the Russians are ready for talks. While losing a small amount of Russian territory, it still occupies a much larger amount of territory in Ukraine.
Russian forces have been slowly advancing over the summer in intense fighting costing thousands of lives on both sides.
Zelensky’s time may be running out
There are several factors potentially at play that could be shifting President Zelensky’s view that the war will only end when Ukraine has kicked the Russians out entirely.
Western support to pay for weapons for Ukraine may be wearing thin.
The population is war-weary and Zelensky’s popularity has been declining.
Most importantly, the U.S. presidential election in November holds unpredictable consequences.
Republican nominee Donald Trump has pledged to end the war “in a day,” which some observers feel might means forcing Ukraine to make concessions and forgo its desire to oust Russian forces.
The Ukraine war is fading from view in the West as new conflicts emerge that require urgent attention, such as in Gaza. But the terrible bloodshed and the ever present risk of the war spreading, potentially escalating to the use of nuclear weapons, makes an end to the conflict urgent.
Last week’s poll results
Last week I invited you to react to the statement, “If our country came under attack, most Canadians would oppose a rush to war that would cost many more lives on all sides.”
Two-out-of-three people agree with the statement (55%), and the third disagrees (36%).
Classifieds
[Event] Meet the Peace Walkers in Halifax and online
Peace activists will be walking from Pugwash to Halifax, Nova Scotia in September. Meet the peace walkers online Tuesday, Sept. 3 at 5:30 PM ET, or attend the event at the Halifax Central Library. Learn more
Did you miss last week’s newsletter?
Viewed 1.81k times
Thank you for everything you do for peace.
Steve
