How many space weapons does Trump need for Golden Dome?
Here is the latest estimate, and it's astounding
The space weapons race is officially on.
But there will ultimately be few winners in this race – only losers as countless billions of dollars are poured into contracts to build and operate Trump’s Golden Dome, while making the world much more dangerous.
This week the Pentagon issued secret contracts to American weapons-makers to build the first generation of space weapons.
The contracts have not yet been publicly announced, however sources told Reuters that the list includes Lockheed Martin and Northup Grumman – two of the biggest defence companies in the world.
The contracts will fund the development of competing prototypes for orbiting space weapons, called interceptors, that will shoot down a missile as it boosts into space like a bullet hitting a bullet.
The ultimate prize is substantial: production contracts worth $1.8 billion to $3.4 billion annually, according to a July Pentagon presentation seen by Reuters.
How many weapons will be put into space?
There are many variables in determining how many space weapons will be needed, but the estimated number is mind-boggling.
According to missile defence expert Todd Harrison of the American Enterprise Institute, if the technology can achieve a level where a space-based interceptor works most of the time, the system will require two orbiting interceptors to be fired at each incoming missile to achieve a reasonable success rate (but still not 100%).
But the problem is the interceptors don’t hover over an enemy launch site in space – they are in orbit, circling the earth. That means many interceptions will need to be in orbit over the launch site to ensure there are two interceptors in range at any moment.
According to Harrison, 1,900 interceptors will be needed to provide continuous coverage of all points on Earth. The cost would be in order of $11 billion to $27 billion US. But the catch is – that’s only enough for a good chance at intercepting just two missiles.
250,000 space weapons will be required for Trump’s Golden Dome
President Trump’s Executive Order for Golden Dome calls for, “Development and deployment of proliferated space-based interceptors capable of boost-phase intercept.” This is a tall order, says Harrison.
Considering that Russia and China currently have 1000 land-based and submarine-launched intercontinental nuclear missiles combined, the number of orbiting interceptors is mind-boggling.
The most robust defence, capable of intercepting 250 missiles in a single attack, would require 250,000 interceptors in orbit, according to Harrison. “And that still would not be enough to intercept everything if Russia and China launched all their ICBMs at once,” he noted.
Using his online calculator, over 7,000 launches are required just to put that many interceptors in orbit and replace them as they wear-out over 20 years.
The total system cost is $7.5 trillion dollars US, which includes development, procurement, launch, and operating costs over 20 years in constant dollars.
Space-based weaponry is the most difficult, and expensive, option by far
Harrison is the first to point out that the design parameters are key factors in the cost and number of space weapons required.
In a recent interview by Space News, he wondered if the Trump administration would reword its Executive Order to avoid the term, “boost phase” which requires space-based interceptors to hit enemy missiles shortly after lift-off.
For instance, he noted that the window to intercept a missile in boost phase would be between only three and four minutes after launch.
This means that the time available for satellites to detect a launch, calculate the missile’s trajectory and decide whether it is a threat, and finally, to make a decision to attempt to shoot it down from space – would be about two minutes. This leaves only one minute for the interceptor to launch, acquire the enemy missile, fly toward it, maneuver in its path, and then collide with it.
Prime Minister Carney remains quiet on Golden Dome
In May, President Trump stunned everyone when he announced from the Oval Office, “Today I am pleased to announce that we have officially selected an architecture for this state-of-the art system that will deploy next-generation technology across the lands, sea and space including space-bases sensors and interceptors, and Canada has called us and they want to be a part of it.” (emphasis added)
Over the summer, President Trump said the cost for Canada would be $61 billion US, then later he increased it to $71 billion US, or $100 billion Canadian dollars. He added that it would be negotiated in a deal separately from the broader trade and economic deal being sought by Canada for tariff relief.
Unphased by the price tag, apparently, Prime Minister Carney said, “We’ll be working together on a Golden Dome for the two countries.”
The Prime Minister’s first federal budget committed nearly $82 billion in defence spending increases over 5 years, but there was no mention of Golden Dome.
Will Canadians have the opportunity to ask questions, such as why the government is overturning decades of our country’s opposition to space weapons? Will Parliament have the opportunity to get answers, for that matter?
In Ottawa, only a handful of powerful people know the answer, and they aren’t talking.
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Readers support public hearings on Canada’s defence policy
Last week I asked if you support the government asking Canadians for their views on Canada’s defence and foreign policies in a public review. Nearly everyone agreed that Canadians deserve a voice (96%).
For Carney, helping "our" economy means the fortunes of the 1%, and it seems that is his only guiding star, whatever the collateral damage. We should give the diplomats our support, and outlaw making profits from weapons. If people might be forced to be on the front lines, the companies should be drafted into service first.
I hope I am wrong.