The hidden forces driving up military spending

Check out my interview with Desmond Cole of The Breach

Sep 13, 2025

Good morning – Here is your Saturday newsletter. This week I’m sharing an interview with Desmond Cole for our friends at The Breach. Hope you enjoy it – check out the summary below.

In peace,

Steve

Prime Minister Mark Carney is trying to prepare everyone for a very tough budget next month. Expect cuts in a lot of areas, but spending boosts in others.

The big winner will likely be the Department of National Defence, which will see its budget grow by at least $9-billion next year. But where will the cuts be made to pay for it all?

“We made a clear commitment to Canadians to bring a new fiscal discipline to the federal budget. These are tough times. We have to make tough choices for a better future,” Carney said at this week’s Liberal caucus retreat in Edmonton.

Our friends at the The Breach Show, hosted by Desmond Cole, invited me to discuss the dramatic increase in Canadian military spending proposed by the federal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Mark Carney is embarking on the largest military spending hike in Canada since World War 2. Policy analyst and peace activist Steve Staples joins Desmond Cole to explain why the biggest winner is the weapons lobby—at the expense of Canadians’ social programs and standard of life. September 2, 2025, YouTube.com

Carney aims to raise defence spending to 5% of Canada’s GDP, a move unprecedented since World War II and far exceeding past commitments such as the 2% NATO guideline. I told Desmond that this massive military budget expansion is not primarily about defending Canada – it’s about protecting free trade.

In the interview, I highlight the powerful coalition of corporate, defence, and military lobbies pushing for this spending increase, with political parties across the spectrum supporting higher military budgets.

Despite public perception that threats exist to Canada, particularly related to Russia and the war in Ukraine, Canada faces no direct military threat and the spending boost is more about positioning Canada within global power dynamics and enhancing industrial capacity.

Here are the highlights:

Unprecedented Military Spending Shift

Raising defence spending to 5% of GDP represents a historic shift for Canada, exceeding Cold War and post-9/11 levels and signaling a fundamental reorientation of national priorities. This magnitude of spending will transform the country’s budgetary allocations and political landscape, forcing tough choices about social programs and public services.

Defence Spending as Economic and Geopolitical Strategy

Rather than responding to clear, immediate threats, Canada’s military spending increase serves as an industrial policy to boost high-tech manufacturing and AI development within the defence sector. It also acts as a bargaining chip to maintain privileged trade relations with the U.S., illustrating how defence policy is intertwined with broader economic and diplomatic agendas.

Political Consensus and Lobby Influence

The near-universal political support for increased military spending, with only the Greens opposing, highlights the strong influence of defence and corporate lobbies in Ottawa. This consensus diminishes room for dissent or alternative visions of security, reflecting a militarization of political debate and policy.

Questionable Security Threats

While Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is cited as justification, I argue Canada faces no direct military threat. The much closer security challenge is the overwhelming military dominance of the U.S., which Canada cannot realistically counterbalance. The ambiguity around the nature of threats points to a policy driven more by alliance politics and economic interests than by actual defence needs.

Risks of the Trump’s “Golden Dome” Missile Defence Initiative

The proposed missile defence system revives Cold War-era weapons race dynamics, involving costly, highly complex AI-enabled technologies aimed at intercepting nuclear and cruise missiles. I warn that this system may destabilize global security by encouraging adversaries to develop more advanced offensive weapons, exacerbating arms races with Russia, China, and others.

Trade-offs and Social Impacts

The promise of massive military spending increases comes with implicit and explicit warnings of cuts to social programs such as health care, education and support for vulnerable groups. The potential for "Americanization" of Canada’s social services threatens long-standing public welfare models and raises questions about the sustainability and public acceptance of the military spending agenda.

Peacebuilding Opportunities Through Youth Activism

Despite the current militarized trajectory, I see hope in the growing youth and grassroots movements, especially those mobilizing around issues of justice and solidarity such as the Palestine cause. These movements may cultivate a new generation of peace advocates capable of challenging militarism and promoting alternative security concepts grounded in human rights and diplomacy.

I hope you enjoy watching it.

Leave a comment explaining your vote.

Last week’s survey results

Last week, PeaceQuest looked at the potential implications for Canada of any new economic and security deal with the United States, and whether Canadians should be asked to approve such a deal, should it come about.

Three-quarters (76%) of readers said they would like to see any potential deal with the United States put to a referendum. But one-in-ten (9%) felt it is OK to let Parliament decide, while nearly twice (16%) as many people said they don’t know/unsure.

Here are some reader comments:

“Referendums are dangerous. So much depends on the wording of the question.” - Murray Lumley
“My ‘don't know/unsure’ vote reflects my view that it's premature to call for a referendum. – Paul Vanderham
“Anything less than an independent policy by Canada would be entirely ignoring the will of Canadians. Can they get away with that? Again?” – Stuart Ross