That time when nuclear war was a coin toss
The World might have ended in 2022, and now the UN is trying to save it
A coin toss. Heads we live…tails we all die.
That’s how close we came to the first use of a nuclear weapon since 1945.
It was just a few years ago in September 2022, and Russian troops were being pushed back by Ukraine whose troops had launched a successful surprise incursion into Russia and captured territory.
Russians had threatened to use nuclear weapons in the past, but the West thought Putin was always bluffing. But not this time.
The CIA informed U.S. President Joseph Biden that it had intercepted increasing chatter from Russian forces about the possibility of using smaller-scale “tactical” nuclear weapons.
The spy agency warned the President of a 50% chance or higher that Russia would reach for its nuclear arsenal if it found its forces were decimated.
Fortunately, frantic and forceful calls from the White House to the Kremlin had an effect. Even Chinese President Xi Jinping’s help was enlisted to persuade Putin to stand down.
A disastrous escalation to a nuclear conflict between superpowers was avoided.
As the Ukrainians were later forced to withdraw, the pressure to reach for “the button” receded.
President Biden shared publicly the harrowing nuclear close call a few weeks later.
Biden said Russian President Vladimir Putin was “not joking when he talks about the use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons.”
“We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis [in 1962],” the president added.
Trouble brewing at the United Nations?
If Prime Minister Mark Carney is correct and the previous World order governed by treaties and international law is over, then a bad situation may be unfolding in New York at the United Nations.
One of the last nuclear treaties signed by the big powers is under review next week. The UN calls the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (“proliferation,” meaning the increase or spread of nuclear weapons to other countries), or NPT, “an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament,” and “the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime.”
The challenge is that each of the last two 5-year reviews of the NPT ended with a failure to reach a final agreed-upon statement.
Experts urging Ottawa to get off the sidelines
A group of Canadian “Who’s Who” – all recipients of the prestigious Order of Canada – have written the Prime Minister calling upon the Government of Canada to provide leadership for the NPT and nuclear disarmament efforts.
“This core treaty of nuclear governance is facing a ‘three strikes and you’re out’ result with possibly fatal effects for its authority. A rescue plan is sorely needed to salvage the treaty and prevent this dire outcome,” wrote the “Canadian Leadership for Nuclear Disarmament.” The letter was signed Lloyd Axworthy, Elizabeth May, and Allan Rock among others.
Prime Minister Mark Carney responds
The group released the Prime Minister’s reply to their urgent request on Friday. The response was only two paragraphs long, and despite its brevity, described their call for leadership as, “both timely and appreciated.” The Prime Minister said he had passed the correspondence to his Minister of Foreign Affairs.
The signers might take solace that the Prime Minister responded given the myriad challenges facing the country.
But unfortunately, expectations for anything resembling past Canadian diplomatic accomplishments (remember landmines?) have been turned into dust over the last generation of inaction.
Still, people like me who have spent much of their lives working for peace know that the challenge to avoid nuclear war, and abolish the bombs, is a multi-generational struggle that is passed on from our parents, and then to our children. It may not happen tomorrow, but it will happen.
We have been incredibly lucky for over 80 years, let’s hope it doesn’t run out next time.
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PeaceQuest added to Canadian Peace Museum collection
The Canadian Peace Museum being established in rural Bancroft, Ontario has added archives from the Kingston-based founders of PeaceQuest to its collection. You can access materials produced from 2012-2020 and a special site devoted to peace education called “War and Children” created by educators for teachers.
Readers feel Pope Leo XIV has positive influence
Last week we dubbed Pope Leo the new “anti-Trump” when he spoke out passionately against the war on Iran, evoking the social media scorn of President Trump.
In an article that was one the most read and most engaged published by PeaceQuest recently, 95% of readers said, “Yes, the Pope can influence global affairs and promote peace.”
Unfortunately, the Liberal Party has always been the continentalist party, providing diplomatic cover for the U.S. (e.g. Canada's treacherous role on the International Control Commission in Vietnam), voting with the U.S. against anti-colonial resolutions (e.g. many resolutions calling for opposing Israel's crimes against Palestinian humanity). The Conservatives have been just as bad, with the exception of the Diefenbaker era (rejection of nuclear bases in Canada). Carney has shown himself to back down (e.g. maintaining a media tax against American media companies). He offers a Orwellian "principled pragmatism", which is meant to appease Trump while seemingly defending Canadian interests. His vision is that of a return to the old set of tariff relationships between Canada and the U.S. Meanwhile, he is copying the authoritarian and anti-humanistic playbook of the American government with legislation that curtails civil liberties, punishes immigrants and refugees, and centralizes authoritarian practices. His vision of Canada is that of degradation of our international commitments to lawfulness (e.g. allowing war materiel to slip through U.S. borders and onto the genocidal state of Israel). His national vision is one of anti-climate pipelines and tar sands oil exports, while so much of the rest of the world (except the U.S.) is investing heavily in solar and wind. Carney's vision is a non-vision, just perpetuating the failing status quo. The real alternative lies with Avi Lewis.
Certainly, Canada might, and Canada should!