What if the Oct. 7 attack had never happened?
Could a single email have prevented the entire war?
Just when you think the war in Gaza could not get any worse – it does. The head of the United Nations warned countries that there is a high risk of the total collapse in Gaza and "a complete breakdown of public order" because of Israel’s two-months of intense bombing.
The bloody conflict was sparked by Hamas fighters’ shocking and vicious attack which killed 1200 Israelis on October 7, prompting a military response which has been tenfold more deadly. Prime Minister Netanyahu has stalled an investigation into how the attack could have happened, given Israel’s vast military and intelligence apparatus.
What if the attack on October 7 had been thwarted?
In a recent episode of "The Daily" podcast from The New York Times, host Michael Barbaro discusses the intelligence failures that preceded a devastating terror attack carried out by Hamas inside Israel. Investigating the aftermath of the attack, Barbaro is joined by his colleague Ronen Bergman, who has extensive experience covering the Israeli military and its intelligence services.
Bergman provides insights into the unique influence of Israel's intelligence service on the country's security strategy. He emphasizes the significance of intelligence services in supplying pre-alerts about potential threats, a crucial aspect of Israeli security. As the second-largest intelligence community globally, Israel relies heavily on its intelligence services to gather real-time information on enemy intent and capabilities.
Related Posts
The conversation unfolds around Bergman's quest to understand how Israel missed the warnings leading up to the Hamas attack. The pivotal moment is when Bergman uncovers a warning report known as the "Jericho Wall." This report, obtained by Israeli intelligence more than a year prior to the attack, outlined a detailed Hamas plan to attack Israel.
It sounds like a conspiracy theory – but it’s true.
The "Jericho Wall" report, a shocking document of about 40 pages, revealed the depth of intelligence that Hamas had gathered on Israel. It specifically targeted the Gaza Division, responsible for protecting the Israeli-Gazan border. Bergman describes the meticulous details in the plan, including a staged military drill simulating the attack. Despite the alarming nature of the report, it was largely dismissed by Israeli authorities.
The episode highlights an internal struggle within Israeli intelligence. A seasoned analyst had noticed the significance of the drill, flagging it as a potential dry run for the "Jericho Wall" plan. However, her warnings were downplayed by higher-ups who believed Hamas was not capable of such an attack. The analyst's insistence that this was not a mere show-off but a preparation for war went unheeded.
Bergman sheds light on three critical aspects of the intelligence blunder. Firstly, there was a misunderstanding of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar's intent, with Israel believing he was leaning towards governance rather than war. Secondly, the capacity of Hamas was underestimated due to a reliance on the belief that Sinwar was not planning an all-out attack. Lastly, there was a complacent reliance on the security fence, leading to a lack of readiness on the southern front.
Bergman emphasizes the impact on public confidence in the Israeli defence establishment, stating that the intelligence blunder will haunt Israel for years to come. The breach of the implicit contract between the state and the people, promising protection, has deeply affected the perception of the government's ability to ensure national security.
(Cover: Palestinians storm Israeli territory, east of the city of Khan Yunis, south of the Gaza Strip, October 7, 2023. Via Shutterstock)