How will Trump end the Ukraine war?
He boasts he’ll do it in his first 24 hours as President
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Steve
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In an odd twist, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump received congratulatory messages after his big election win from leaders on both sides of the brutal and bloody war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin have their own reasons to keep a positive working relationship with Trump after his sweeping election victory last week.
Chief among them is Trump’s promise to end the Ukraine war within a day of taking office. But nobody is sure how he plans to do it.
At a CNN town hall in May 2023, Trump said: “They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I’ll have that done — I’ll have that done in 24 hours.” He’s repeated the pledge often.
And dying they are – an estimated 80,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed since the Russian invasion in 2022, while as many as 200,000 Russian troops have been killed.
Compelling Ukraine to the table
As discussed previously on PeaceQuest, the war is essentially a stalemate with both sides unleashing waves of artillery barrages at the other, including cluster bombs and other horrors. The death toll is so high, both sides are literally running out of soldiers.
The Wall Street Journal reported this week that sources say Trump will reverse the Biden Administration’s policy of allowing the Ukrainians to determine when peace talks should begin. Trump will try to compel Ukraine to the table, potentially threatening to cut off its essential supply of U.S. weapons.
Freezing the front lines
Under the deal, the front line between Ukrainian and Russian forces would essentially be locked in place and both sides would agree to an 800-mile demilitarized zone. It's unclear who would police the zone, but Trump said it wouldn’t involve American troops, nor come from a U.S.-funded international body, such as the United Nations, leaving it Europe’s responsibility (it’s reasonable to wonder whether Canada might contribute troops).
For Russia, Ukraine would not become a NATO member for at least 20 years. For Ukraine, the U.S. would supply it with enough weaponry to deter Russia from ever crossing the red line (like it had previously under earlier agreements).
What if Ukraine refuses?
It will be difficult for Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to give up his war aims of liberating Russian-occupied territory, so he might turn to European supporters to fill the gap left by the United States -Ukraine’s biggest weapons supplier.
European leaders have quietly launched talks on how to help Ukraine fend off Russia’s invasion without Washington’s support, even as they try to persuade President-elect Donald Trump not to cut aid to Kyiv.
Military experts suggest that even if enough money was found in strained national budgets, the European weapons-building capacity is not ready. Key weapons systems needed by Ukraine, including air defences and missiles, are only built in the United States.
Which way will Canada lean?
Canada is sometimes caught between its European colonial history, and its U.S. neighbour (recall the major dispute between the U.S. and Europe over the invasion of Iraq in 2003, when Canada said “no” to the U.S.)
Given the many other areas of potential friction with the U.S., including crippling trade tariffs, Ukraine is unlikely to be a prominent issue.
But still, it was announced that Prime Minister Trudeau had spoken with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy this week, and Trudeau, “reaffirmed Canada’s steadfast commitment to stand by the people of Ukraine as they resist Russia’s unjustifiable war of aggression. He reiterated that Canada will continue providing military, financial, and other assistance until Ukraine achieves victory.”
Donald Trump will officially take power as U.S. President on January 20, 2025.
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Thank you for everything you do for peace.
Steve
Ukraine is fighting this war not just for itself but for democracy, and all Western countries should
support Ukraine as though they themselves are being attacked, because they are.
I believe that it will take much longer than Trump realizes. There are too many uncertainties and unknowns, particularly from Russia. I don’t think that Putin will be willing to give many concessions to Ukraine and that he cannot be trusted to honour any commitment or agreement. Trump, I believe is quite naive about Putin and does not understand the geopolitical consequences of his actions.