Is Carney fumbling Alberta separation?
Should the PM stick to his green credentials or coddle Premier Danielle Smith?
The Alberta separatists are clamouring for it – Indigenous groups have blocked it (so far), and the Americans can smell it like sharks…
and now Danielle Smith has confirmed it: the referendum is going ahead.
How should the Prime Minister respond?
Is he comprising too much with Alberta in a “go-along-to-get-along” strategy? Or is he tactically avoiding making a bad situation even worse, and perhaps outmaneuvering Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in the process?
On Thursday night Premier Danielle Smith announced Albertans will be going to the polls in October to cast their vote on separation - but they won’t actually be voting on whether to separate.
Instead, they’ll be choosing whether or not it’s time to hold a binding referendum on quitting Canada.
As a Globe and Mail writer said, “Alberta Premier Danielle Smith hasn’t quite set Alberta up for a secession referendum. She’s just coming really, really close – about as close as you can get – and nobody, not the separatists, not the federalists, is all that thrilled about it.”
The Premier’s dangerous strategy
Former Senator Douglas Roche, writing from Edmonton, says that Premier Smith is straddling the separation issue. She knows that the majority of Albertans do not support leaving, so she says her position, and that of her government, is to remain in Canada.
But the minority (about 27%) of Albertans who support separation are a majority within her own party. “This means that Smith is dependent on separatists to remain leader,” writes Roche in the Hill Times.
Jen Gerson, an Alberta-based journalist, says Smith’s dalliance with separatists is dangerous politically for her and the country: “There’s no way to know ahead of a catastrophe that you’ve gone too far this time, found the moment you’ve hit something too deep and dangerous to step back from. Some pits open to a darkness that no one can control.”
Gerson points out that Smith knows this risky politics is why no Alberta Premier since Ralph Klein has actually finished their term.
Weaponizing the separatist movement
On the other hand, the threat of separation is politically useful to the Premier in extracting concessions from the federal government and Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Carney and Smith met in Ottawa this month to move along their memorandum of understanding to lay out a pathway for an oil pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast - something that Premier Smith has long sought out to expand Alberta oil exports, but has met resistance from climate change activists and neighbouring British Columbia.
“Today is also about building trust in a Canada that works” PM Carney told reporters. “We've accomplished a lot together in the last six months,” added Premier Smith.
For many, Carney has gone too far.
Our friend Seth Klein writes on Substack from B.C., the tail pipe of the potential pipeline. “Carney has also gone all-in on supporting new fossil fuel infrastructure. The prime minister is bent on environmental deregulation, exempting projects deemed ‘nation-building’ from some environmental laws,” he says.
Klein feels that many who voted for Carney because they believed he would be an ally in the fight against climate change have been let down, “As plank after plank of Canada’s climate strategy is dismantled, more and more of those climate-anxious voters are feeling a major case of buyer’s remorse.”
When I’m not writing for PeaceQuest readers I work on federal health policy, and the Carney government’s incredibly tepid response to Alberta’s unprecedented health care privatization has been a top concern.
The Prime Minister’s strategy
Still, Doug Roche thinks that Carney is refusing to push back on Smith, because this is exactly what she wants him to do.
Roche agrees with those who say Danielle Smith would prefer if the prime minister was more confrontational. It would fit her narrative better. Instead, “Carney’s strategy is to show Albertans that cooperative federalism works,” says Roche.
Roche might be right, given that the separatists are livid with Premier Smith and calling for her ouster after announcing her confusing referendum. Smith is urging separatists to focus on winning the referendum – not kicking her out of office like every other Premier since Ralph Klein.
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Readers say Ottawa Treaty is major Canadian accomplishment
Last week we looked back at the famous Ottawa Treaty banning landmines. Overwhelmingly (91%) readers felt strongly that the Ottawa Treaty is a key part of Canada’s international accomplishments.
As Jim Carmichael said in the comments, banning landmines was and remains an urgent goal, and, “The partnership between the Canadian Government and the United Nations resulting in the Ottawa Treaty banning landmines, was thus a major achievement in the service of humanity.”
