What might be Trump’s next challenge of Canada’s independence and sovereignty?
His openly-stated desire to annex Canada might not stop at economic measures alone.
As Prime Minister Mark Carney said, “Donald Trump wants to break us so America can own us.” But what if Trump decides to use military power along with economic tariffs?
An Arctic expert writing in The Globe and Mail says we shouldn’t think of tanks or helicopters streaming over the border. Instead, an American show-of-force could begin with a single Navy warship being sent into Canadian waters through the Northwest passage in Canada’s North.
“Canada needs to consider the possibility that U.S. President Donald Trump will soon, and without our permission, send American warships into and through the waterways of the Canadian Arctic archipelago, commonly known as the Northwest Passage,” writes Franklyn Griffiths.
What’s the big deal?
Why would anyone worry about a ship way up in the Arctic, you might ask. It hardly seems like a credible threat so far away from where we live.
Maybe, but such a provocative move would be a direct challenge to Canada’s territorial integrity.
You see, Canada’s Arctic is made up of many islands. The channels between the islands, including the Northwest Passage that links the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, are considered internal waterways. Canada insists ships transiting the Arctic seek our permission, first.
But the United States (and others) disagree. They don’t recognize our internal waters claims, and see Canada’s Arctic as an archipelago of islands, and the channels between them as international straits. (I co-authored this report with the late Dr. Michael Wallace on this topic in 2010.)
Sending a warship bristling with weapons through the Northwest Passage without seeking our permission would be a boldface challenge to Canadian sovereignty claims.
Canada’s position: Canada claims the Northwest Passage as internal waters, meaning it has full sovereignty and control over who can pass through it.
U.S. position: The United States views the Passage as an international strait, which would allow for unimpeded passage of ships, including military vessels, without needing Canada’s permission.
It’s happened before, and could happen again
The Americans have tried it in the past – several times. In 1969 and the following year, the United States challenged our sovereignty with unauthorized voyages of the commercial oil tanker Manhattan. In 1985 they escalated and sent the U.S. Coast Guard icebreaker Polar Sea.
The Polar Sea incident caused a diplomatic uproar. The Americans notified Canada of the icebreaker’s proposed route from Greenland to Alaska through the Arctic, but no permission was sought. In order to save face, Canada granted permission (even though none was sought) and the Americans permitted Canadian personnel onboard during the journey. Two years later, an agreement was reached confirming the U.S. would ask permission before navigating the disputed waters.
But the controversy has refused to go away. During Trump’s first term, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stunned onlookers by taking swipes at Canada, China and Russia in a speech to delegates attending an Arctic Council meeting.
“We recognize Russia is not the only country making illegitimate claims,” he said, referring to Canada.
What might Canada’s rection be?
It’s difficult to predict how Prime Minister Carney would react to an unauthorized transit of a U.S. vessel through the Northwest Passage. U.S. nuclear subs are already in Canada’s Arctic, but their invisibility does not provoke a political reaction.
Given the Prime Minister’s “elbow’s down” approach to the terrible tariffs, an overt American snub to Canadian sovereignty would be very unwelcomed, but he might similarly want to appease the temperamental U.S. President by not making a fuss.
In 1985, a time of similarly high nationalism surrounding the controversial Canada-U.S. Free Trade debate, activists from my former organization, the Council of Canadians, dropped Canadian flags from an airplane on the Polar Sea to confront the Americans.
Franklin Griffiths thinks if the Americans try a repeat of the Manhattan and the Polar Sea, the challenge, “would give rise to an unprecedented wave of nationalist sentiment and political energy to defend the Arctic maritime sovereignty of Canada.”
Let’s hope so.
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Readers unimpressed by media coverage of Trump’s Golden Dome
Last week I asked readers if the media is doing a good job covering the devastating implications for Canada and the world posed by Trump’s Golden Dome space weapons plan.
Nearly everyone (98%) said they disagreed, with three quarters saying they disagree strongly (75%).
