While Gaza burns, the U.S. risks nuclear war in Ukraine
While Gaza burns, the U.S. risks nuclear war in Ukraine
NATO edging ever closer to direct conflict with Russia
With “all eyes on Rafah” following the horrifying deaths of Palestinian civilians in fiery airstrikes by Israel on Gaza, hardly anyone is noticing that the U.S. and NATO nuclear powers are pushing the world closer to a nuclear catastrophe in Ukraine.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, is growing desperate as Russia makes advances on the battlefield, and he has been pleading for permission to attack Russian troops, airbases, and other targets in Russia using missiles donated by NATO.
This week the Biden Administration relented, and authorized Ukraine – for the first time – to use American-donated missiles in limited strikes on Russian troops inside Russia, not just those occupying Ukrainian territory.
The risk of escalation; dragging NATO and Russia into a fight with their nuclear weapons, is perilously close.
The West is testing Russia’s threats and Putin’s willingness to tolerate American missiles raining down on Russia – without Russia retaliating against America or its NATO allies.
Russia’s warnings
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Tuesday of “serious consequences,” stressing his country’s nuclear strength, if Ukraine’s Western allies loosened their policy.
Senior Russian security official Dmitry Medvedev also said Russia was not bluffing when it spoke of the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine and that its conflict with the West could escalate into an all-out war.
Why can’t Ukraine strike Russia?
You may be surprised to learn that, until now, Ukraine has been discouraged by NATO powers from striking into Russia with NATO-supplied weapons – or at least admitting when it does.
The reason is Western weapons killing Russians is a hair’s breadth away from a direct conflict between NATO and Russia. The only difference is that it’s a Ukrainian soldier (funded by NATO, trained by NATO, and armed by NATO) who is pushing the button to launch the missile, not an American or other NATO memeber’s soldier.
Nuclear threats and the failure of “deterrence”
The balance of terror caused by nuclear weapons has arguably prevented their use since the U.S. bombed Japan in 1945.
Deterring your opponent from using nuclear weapons requires them to believe that you will strike back with weapons of your own. This doctrine is ironically called MAD – Mutually Assured Destruction.
However many analysts and commentators in the West have repeatedly dismissed Russia’s warning and outright nuclear threats as merely a bluff.
The other NATO nuclear powers, the UK and France, have already permitted Ukraine to strike Russia using donated missiles. Even more, France is reportedly considering basing troops in Ukraine, making them a potential target for Russian strikes.
Unintended nuclear consequences
If such cavalier attitudes over Russia’s threats are adopted at the highest political levels, the United States may no longer be deterred from acting more aggressively.
This could leave Russia feeling it must be the first to use a nuclear weapon as a demonstration of its resolve.
So it’s no surprise that Putin is surrounded by Kremlin hawks who are urging him to detonate a nuclear weapon as a demonstration to the West of Russia’s resolve to defend itself, in their view. Despite NATO’s denials, Russia views the Ukraine war as a proxy war with NATO.
It has been widely speculated that the Americans have warned Russia that any use of nuclear weapons will result in a massive non-nuclear military response by NATO against Russians in occupied Ukraine. At that point there would be no mistaking a direct war between Russia and NATO – both sides brimming with nuclear weapons.
U.S. politics a driving force
Some analysts suggest that the Biden administration is worried about the Ukraine war’s impact on the November Presidential election. NATO’s 75-anniversary celebrations will be held in Washington next month.
It will be embarrassing for President Biden if Ukraine is losing after so many pledges to provide Ukraine with “whatever it takes,” to reclaim its territory from Russia. Republican nominee Donald Trump would welcome the chance to claim he can end the war where Biden has failed.
Dialogue must replace threats
Arms control expert Daryl Kimbal says the U.S. and Russia must take action to reduce the threat of nuclear war. “Given the stakes, the international community must pursue approaches that lower tensions, increase dialogue, and resist those who threaten to break the nuclear taboo.”
For more information, listen to the podcast “Moscow ‘should consider nuclear explosion to warn West’” by Ukraine: The Latest published May 31, 2024.
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